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Release of 1st quarter 2011 real estate statistics

Monday 25 April 2011

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the real estate statistics for the 1st Quarter 2011.

SUMMARY

Prices of private residential, office, shop and industrial properties increased by 2.2%, 4.9%, 0.5% and 8.3% respectively in the 1st Quarter 2011.

Rentals of private residential properties, office, shop and industrial properties increased by 1.2%, 5.4%, 0.8% and 6.3% respectively in the 1st Quarter 2011.

As at 1st Quarter 2011, there were 68,887 private residential units in the pipeline, comprising supply from projects already under construction and those that had been granted planning approval but where construction had not yet commenced. The pipeline supply of 68,887 units was the highest level ever recorded since such data was first made available in 1999. Of these, 34,266 units were still unsold. This number is equivalent to about 3 years of supply based on the average take-up1 of about 11,400 units per year over the last 3 years.

For the office sector, there was a pipeline supply of about 994,000 sq m Gross Floor Area (GFA) of office space from various Government and private land sources. Of the supply in the pipeline, about 30,491 private residential units and about 705,000 sq m GFA of office space were expected to be completed between 2nd Quarter 2011 and 2013. This is based on developers’ declarations. The actual completion schedule may change from quarter to quarter as developers adjust their development plans or construction schedule according to market conditions.

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

Prices

Overall prices of private residential properties increased by 2.2% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 2.7% increase in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-1, A-6 & A-7). This was the 6th consecutive quarter in which the rate of increase in private housing prices had moderated.

Prices of non-landed properties increased by 1.7% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 1.8% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of apartments increased by 0.8%, while prices of condominiums increased by 2.1% in the 1st Quarter 2011.

Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region2 (CCR) increased by 1.1% in 1st Quarter 2011, and prices of non-landed properties in Rest of Central Region3 (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) increased by 2.0% and 3.1% respectively (see Annex A-2).

Prices of landed properties increased by 3.9% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 5.5% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of detached, semi-detached and terrace houses increased by 4.1%, 2.8% and 3.9% respectively in 1st Quarter 2011.

The prices of private residential properties are not uniform and vary from project to project. Home-buyers can access additional information on private residential properties at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/propertyinfo4. It comprises data pertaining to private residential projects, including those with units still available for sale, as well as individual private residential property transactions5.

Rentals

Rentals of private residential properties6 increased by 1.2% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 2.6% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-3).

Rentals of non-landed properties in CCR, RCR and OCR increased by 1.2%, 0.4% and 1.6% respectively in 1st Quarter 2011 (see Annexes A-3 & A-4).

In addition, URA also released data on the 25th percentile, median and 75th percentile rentals for individual private residential projects for 1st Quarter 20117. The data on the rentals of individual private residential projects are available on URA’s website at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/propertyinfo.

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of 68,887 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline8 (see Annex E-1). The pipeline supply of 68,8879 units was the highest level ever recorded since such data was first made available in 1999. Of the 68,887 units, 34,266 units were still unsold. These comprised 4,179 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 9,799 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 20,288 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale10 (see Annex B-1). Details of the number of unsold private residential units with planning approvals in the 3 market segments are given in Annex B-2.

Of the 68,887 units, 30,491 units were expected to be completed between 2nd Quarter 2011 and 2013, of which 25,238 units were already under construction11. Developers had obtained planning approvals12 for projects making up the remaining 5,253 units (see Annex E-2).

URA also released detailed data on supply in the pipeline by market segment, development status and expected year of completion at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/propertyinfo. This is to enable the public to have a more comprehensive picture of supply coming on-stream over the next few years in the private housing market. Of the 68,887 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline, 20,118, 19,235 units and 29,534 units were in CCR, RCR and OCR respectively.

In addition to the supply in the pipeline above, the Government had in Nov 2010 announced the supply of private housing to be made available via the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme in the 1st Half of 2011 (1H2011) to meet the strong demand for private housing and land for residential developments. This comprises 17 sites that can potentially yield about 8,100 private residential units on the Confirmed List, and 13 sites that can potentially yield about another 6,200 private residential units on the Reserve List. Collectively, the GLS Programme can potentially yield about 14,300 units. This is the highest potential supply quantum from any half yearly GLS Programme since the Confirmed List/Reserve List system started in 2H2001. Most of the sites in the 1H2011 GLS Programmes are located in OCR or locations in RCR where more affordable private housing is expected to be built. The Government will announce the details of the 2H2011 GLS Programme by June 2011.

Launches and Take-up

A total of 4,130 uncompleted private residential units were launched for sale by developers in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with 4,522 units in 4th Quarter 2010. Of the 4,130 uncompleted units launched in the quarter, 730 units were in CCR, 1,425 units were in RCR, and 1,975 units were in OCR (see Annex C-1). Major residential projects launched in the quarter included Waterfront Isle at Bedok Reservoir Road (561 units), Canberra Residences at Canberra Drive (320 units), H2O Residences at Fernvale Link/Sengkang West Avenue (300 units of a total of 521 units), Spottiswoode 18 at Spottiswoode Park Road (251 units) and The Interlace at Alexandra Road/Depot Road (250 of a total of 1040 units).

In 1st Quarter 2011, 3,430 uncompleted private residential units were sold by developers, lower than the 3,965 units in 4th Quarter 2010. Of the 3,430 uncompleted units sold in the quarter, 536 units were in CCR, 993 units were in RCR, and 1,901 units were in OCR (see Annex C-2). Developers also sold 165 completed private residential units in 1st Quarter 2011.

Sub-sales

The total number of sub-sales was 550 in 1st Quarter 2011, compared to 738 sub-sales in the previous quarter. In percentage terms, sub-sales accounted for 7.5% of all sale transactions in 1st Quarter 2011, compared to 8.0% in 4th Quarter 2010. The number of sub-sales in CCR in 1st Quarter 2011 accounted for 11.9% of the property sale transactions in this area in the quarter, compared to 10.7% in the previous quarter. The percentage of sub-sales in 1st Quarter 2011 for RCR, at 9.1%, was lower than the 10.0% in the previous quarter. In OCR, the percentage of sub-sales in 1st Quarter 2011 was 5.1% which was lower than the 5.8% in the previous quarter (see Annex D).

Stock and Vacancy

A total of 2,230 private residential units were completed (granted TOP) in 1st Quarter 2011. Major residential projects completed in the quarter were One Shenton at Shenton Way (341 units), The Clift at McCallum Street (312 units), The Peak@Balmeg at Balmeg Hill (180 units) and Seascape at Cove Way (151 units).

The vacancy rate of completed private residential units decreased from 5.0% as at the end of 4th Quarter 2010 to 4.9% as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011 (see Annex E-1).

Executive Condominiums

As at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, there were 4,222 Executive Condominium (EC) units in the pipeline. In addition, about another 1,900 EC units can come from EC sites that have been or will be released for sale by the Government in the GLS programme for 1st Half of 2011.

The total stock of completed EC units remained at 10,430 units as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011. As at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, the vacancy rate remained at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter (see Annex E-1).

OFFICE SPACE

Rentals

Overall rentals for office space, based on leases which had commenced, increased by 5.4% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with an increase of 4.7% in 4th Quarter 2010 (see Annex A-3).

The median rental for “Category 1”13 office space, based on leases which had commenced, was $9.16 per square foot per month (psf pm) in 1st Quarter 2011, slightly higher than the median rental of $8.72 psf pm in 4th Quarter 2010. The median rental for “Category 2”14 office space was $5.58 psf pm in 1st Quarter 2011, also slightly higher than the median rental of $5.29 psf pm in 4th Quarter 2010 (see Annex A-5). As “Category 2” office space accounts for about 80% of all office space in Singapore, the rental for such space is more reflective of the typical rental paid by office tenants in Singapore. These statistics were compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts in Singapore where the leases had commenced in 1st Quarter 2011.

The median rentals for “Category 1” and “Category 2” office space based on rental contracts signed in 1st Quarter 2011 were $9.20 and $5.52 psf pm respectively (see Annex A-5). These statistics were compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts which were signed in the reference quarter, regardless of whether or not the leases commenced in the reference quarter15.

Prices

Prices of office space increased by 4.9% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 5.1% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-1).

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of about 994,000 sq m GFA of office space in the pipeline. Of the total pipeline supply of office space, about 705,000 sq m were expected to be completed between 2nd Quarter 2011 and 2013. More detailed data on pipeline supply of office space by development status and expected year of completion are at Annex E-1 and E-2.

More supply of office space will also come from the GLS sites which were recently awarded or released for sale by the Government in 2010 and 1H2011. This includes the white site at Peck Seah Street / Choon Guan Street as well as the commercial site at Paya Lebar Road / Eunos Road 8 for which the tender has closed on 21 April 2011. In addition, the Government will also be releasing a commercial site at Robinson Road / Cecil Street for sale via the Confirmed List of the 1H2011 GLS Programme in June 2011.

Apart from office space, as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of about 394,000 sq m of business park space from projects in the pipeline from Government and private land sources. Business park space primarily caters to non-pollutive industries and businesses that engage in high-technology, research and development (R&D), high value-added and knowledge-intensive activities. However, some of the business park space could be used for selected office uses such as backroom operations of companies.

Stock and Vacancy

The amount of occupied office space increased by 50,000 sq m (nett) in 1st Quarter 2011, as compared to the increase of 70,000 sq m in the previous quarter. A total of 90,300 sq m of office space were completed (granted TOP) in 1st Quarter 2011. This included office space from OUE Bayfront at Collyer Quay (36,200 sq m).

The island-wide vacancy rate of office space as at end of 1st Quarter 2011 remained at 12.1%, the same as at the end of 4th Quarter 2010. The vacancy rate for “Category 1” office space increased to 16.3% as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, from 14.1% as at the end of 4th Quarter 201016. The vacancy rate for “Category 2” office space as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011 was 10.9%, compared to 11.6% as at the end of 4th Quarter 2010 (see Annex A-5).

SHOP SPACE

Rentals

The overall rentals for shop space in Singapore, based on leases which had commenced, increased by 0.8% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 1.7% increase in the 4th Quarter 2010 (see Annex A-3). The median rental for shop space in the Orchard Planning Area (Orchard), Rest of City Area (RCA)17 and Outside City Area (OCA) also increased to $10.51, $6.44 and $5.72 psf pm respectively in 1st Quarter 2011 (see Annex A-5). These statistics were compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts in Singapore where the leases commenced in 1st Quarter 2011.

The median rentals for shop space in Orchard, RCA and OCA based on all rental contracts signed in 1st Quarter 2011, regardless of whether or not the leases commenced in the quarter, were $10.48, $6.64 and $5.70 psf pm respectively (see Annex A-5).

Prices

Prices of shop space increased by 0.5% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter (see Annex A-1).

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of 373,000 sq m GFA of shop space from projects in the pipeline, from Government and private land sources. Of the total pipeline supply of shop space, about 277,000 sq m were expected to be completed between 2nd Quarter 2011 and 2013. More detailed data on pipeline supply of shop space by development status and expected year of completion are at Annex E-1 and E-2.

Stock and Vacancy

The amount of occupied shop space decreased by 16,000 sq m (nett) in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with an increase of 57,000 sq m in 4th Quarter 2010. A total of 8,300 sq m of shop space were completed (granted TOP) in 1st Quarter 2011.

The island-wide vacancy rate of shop space was 6.1% as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, compared to the 5.8% vacancy rate as at the end of 4th Quarter 2010. The vacancy rates for shop space in Orchard, RCA and OCA as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011 were 6.0%, 8.2% and 5.3% respectively. In comparison, the vacancy rates for shop space in Orchard, RCA and OCA as at the end of 4th Quarter 2010 were 5.0%, 8.8% and 4.8% respectively (see Annex A-5).

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

Prices and Rentals

Prices of multiple-user factory space increased by 8.6% in 1st Quarter 2011, compared with 6.3% in the previous quarter (see Annex A-1). Rentals of multiple-user factory space increased by 8.3%, compared with the increase of 3.4% in the previous quarter (see Annex A-3).

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of 3.122 million sq m GFA of factory space from projects in the pipeline, from Government and private land sources. Of the total pipeline supply of factory space, about 2.962 million sq m were expected to be completed between 2nd Quarter 2011 and 2013. More detailed data on pipeline supply of factory space by development status and expected year of completion are at Annex E-1 and E-2.

Stock and Vacancy

The amount of occupied factory space increased by 263,000 sq m (nett) in 1st Quarter 2011, higher than the increase of 178,000 sq m (nett) in 4th Quarter 2010. A total of 157,600 sq m of factory space were completed (granted TOP) in 1st Quarter 2011.

The vacancy rate of factory space was 6.9% as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011, compared with the 7.2% as at the end of the previous quarter.

URA’s REAL ESTATE INFORMATION SERVICE

More detailed information on the price and rental indices, supply in the pipeline, stock and vacancy position of the various property sectors can be found in the Real Estate Information System (REALIS), an online database of URA.

Subscribers of REALIS can obtain the information from the system after 12.30 pm today. More information on REALIS can be found at http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/index.cfm. You can also contact the REALIS hotline at 6329 3456.

1 Take-up refers to the number of uncompleted private residential units sold by developers.

2 Core Central Region comprises postal districts 9, 10, 11, Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa. A map of Central Region showing the Core Central Region (CCR) and the Rest of Central Region (RCR) is available at: http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/map_ccr.pdf

3 Rest of Central Region comprises of the area within Central Region that is outside postal districts 9, 10, 11, Downtown Core Planning Area and Sentosa. A map of Central Region showing the Core Central Region (CCR) and the Rest of Central Region (RCR) is available at: http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/map_ccr.pdf

4 URA has enhanced its Property Market Information eServices on the URA website on 13 April 2011. Home buyers can now access information on 1) transactions with caveat lodged; 2) developers’ sale of uncompleted units; 3) rentals and 4) pipeline supply of private residential properties via the same link at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/propertyinfo. Similar information can also be accessed by users on the go via the new iphone/ipad application introduced by URA this month. The application can be downloaded directly from http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/property-market-information/id428469176?mt=8&ls=1.”

5 The data for private residential transactions is based on caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority (SLA).

6 URA’s rental data for private residential properties are compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts for such properties where leases commenced in the reference quarter.

7 The rental data released are for private residential projects where there were at least 10 rental transactions in the reference quarter.

8 In this press release, supply or projects in the pipeline refers to new development and redevelopment projects with planning approvals, i.e. either a Provisional Permission (PP) or Written Permission (WP). A WP is a final approval, as compared with a PP, granted under the Planning Act for a proposed development.

9 The 68,887 pipeline supply figure does not include the additional supply of about 6,600 units from GLS sites that have been awarded in 2010 and 1H2011 for which the projects have not been granted planning approvals yet.

10 Refers to uncompleted private residential developments without pre-requisites for sale but with WP or PP granted. The sale licences could be obtained within 5 working days and building plan approvals could be obtained within 7 working days from the date of application for cases where clearances from various technical agencies are obtained and relevant documents are in order during formal submissions.

11 The expected completion dates of private residential projects in the pipeline are provided by the developers of these projects.

12 Planning approvals refer to either PP or WP.

13 Refers to office space in buildings located in core business areas in Downtown Core and Orchard Planning Area which are relatively modern or recently refurbished, command relatively high rentals and have large floor plate size and gross floor area. A map of Central Region showing the locations of Downtown Core and Orchard Planning Areas is available in URA’s website at: http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/map_central_region.pdf.

14 Refers to the remaining office space in Singapore which are not included in “Category 1”.

15 Tenancy agreements for office space are usually signed up to 3 months before lease commencement. The methodology and sample size may differ from those used by some property consultants. For example, URA only uses actual contracted rentals in the computation of the statistics, whereas some property consultants use estimates of achievable rents in addition to actual contracted rentals in the computation of their statistics.

16 The basket of Category 1 office buildings was reviewed in 1Q2011 to ensure that it remains relevant and in line with market changes, e.g. by including appropriate buildings. The increase in vacancy rate for Category 1 office space as at 1Q2011 can be partly attributed to the time taken for some tenants to retrofit the space at newly completed Category 1 office buildings before they move in.

17 A map of Central Region showing Orchard and RCA is available at http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/map_city_area.pdf.

Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA)